Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

Evaluating Subsurface Parameterization to Simulate Hyporheic Exchange: The Steinlach River Test Site     

Reynold Chow  Jeremy Bennett  Jürnjakob Dugge  Thomas Wöhling  Wolfgang Nowak 《Ground water》2020,58(1):93-109

Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of river water and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic exchange has been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. Our study evaluates the trade-offs between intrinsic (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) model errors when choosing between homogeneous and highly complex subsurface parameter structures. We modeled the Steinlach River Test Site in Southwest Germany using a fully coupled surface water-groundwater model to simulate hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive errors and uncertainties of transit time distributions. A highly parameterized model was built, treated as a “virtual reality” and used as a reference. We found that if the parameter structure is too simple, it will be limited by intrinsic model errors. By increasing subsurface complexity through the addition of zones or heterogeneity, we can begin to exchange intrinsic for epistemic errors. Thus, the appropriate level of detail to represent the subsurface depends on the acceptable range of intrinsic structural errors for the given modeling objectives and the available site data. We found that a zonated model is capable of reproducing the transit time distributions of a more detailed model, but only if the geological structures are known. An interpolated heterogeneous parameter field (cf. pilot points) showed the best trade-offs between the two errors, indicating fitness for practical applications. Parameter fields generated by multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) produce transit time distributions with the largest uncertainties, however, these are reducible by additional hydrogeological data, particularly flux measurements.  相似文献   

不同空间插值对InSAR大气延迟改正影响研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

黄长军  陈元洪  周吕 《北京测绘》2018,32(6):629-632

大气效应是InSAR技术用于地表探测的主要误差源之一。GPS数据作为InSAR大气延迟误差改正的重要数据源,受其站点分布疏密的影响,分辨率还无法做到与SAR影像完全相匹配,必须对GPS获取的大气延迟数据进行空间插值。本文采用反距离加权法(IDW)、Kriging插值法和移动曲面拟合法(Surface Moving Fitting,SMF)三种插值方法,探讨了InSAR大气误差改正过程中的空间插值问题,并对三种插值的精度进行了分析和评价。  相似文献   

GIS Based Urban Area Spatiotemporal Change Evaluation Using Landsat and Night Time Temporal Satellite Data     

Emre Yücer  Arzu Erener 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2018,46(2):263-273

This study aims at determining the spatiotemporal change in urban areas by using multi-temporal satellite images with geographic information systems integration. In this study, the city of Erzincan was selected as the sample case. The analyses of change were conducted by using the optical satellite images from LANSAT TM dated 1987 and the LANDSAT ETM+ dated 2006, besides the night images from 1998, 2006 and 2010. Spatial change maps were created for the qualitative analysis, and change matrixes were formed for the quantitative assessment of these changes. The outcomes of these change analyses were then evaluated and interpreted in the light of the demographics of the population living in the area. The results obtained from the Landsat satellite images indicate that the area of the city expanded at the annual average rate of 1.65% in 1987–2006. Night images indicate that the city area grew at an annual average rate of 4.04% in 1998–2006, while this rate was 20.28% in the period of 2006–2010. The results of the study demonstrate that the usability and contribution of satellite images is quite significant in tracking and monitoring temporal and spatial change in the area.  相似文献   

Total Water Storage in Small Islands Using Multi-satellite Products: The case of Cyprus     

Hüseyin Mercan  Orkan Özcan 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2018,46(11):1815-1821

The world’s longest international undersea water pipeline has recently been laid from southern Turkey to Northern Cyprus to address the water scarcity problems in the Cyprus Island. When completed, the project will add 19.8 million gallons of water annually for drinking and irrigation. Moreover, it will spur further development in the Turkish area divided from Greek community for four decades. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a unique tool to evaluate the water policy for the entire island. The objective of this study is, therefore, to examine the potential of satellite-based remote sensing hydrologic models covering a small-scale Mediterranean island, which is under drought conditions. Satellite-based measurements such as GRACE (total water storage), TRMM (precipitation) and MODIS (evapotranspiration) data over a 1°–1° grid together with related information from global hydrological model, specifically WGHM and GLDAS, were collected for this purpose.  相似文献   

Determination of Phobos’ rotational parameters by an inertial frame bundle block adjustment     

Steffi Burmeister  Konrad Willner  Valentina Schmidt  Jürgen Oberst 《Journal of Geodesy》2018,92(9):963-973

A functional model for a bundle block adjustment in the inertial reference frame was developed, implemented and tested. This approach enables the determination of rotation parameters of planetary bodies on the basis of photogrammetric observations. Tests with a self-consistent synthetic data set showed that the implementation converges reliably toward the expected values of the introduced unknown parameters of the adjustment, e.g., spin pole orientation, and that it can cope with typical observational errors in the data. We applied the model to a data set of Phobos using images from the Mars Express and the Viking mission. With Phobos being in a locked rotation, we computed a forced libration amplitude of \(1.14^\circ \pm 0.03^\circ \) together with a control point network of 685 points.  相似文献   

三江源地区降雪量演变特征及其对径流的影响     

刘义花  李红梅  申红艳  刘绿柳  任德山  李金海 《高原气象》2022,41(2):420-429

利用1961-2019年三江源地区19个气象台站逐日气温、降水量等气象观测数据,分析了三江源地区降雪量、降雪日数和雪雨比的时空演变特征及其对径流量的影响。结果表明：（1）1961-2019年三江源地区平均降雪量为146.5 mm,降雪量以14.8 mm·（10a）^-1的速率在减少,1985-1999年为降雪量偏多期,2000年以来为降雪量偏少期;（2）三江源地区年平均雪雨比以4.0%·（10a）-1的速率在减少,长江源区西部及黄河源区西部是雪雨比减少最为明显的区域,其余地区减少速率相对缓慢;（3）三江源地区年平均降雪日数为91天,曲麻莱、五道梁、沱沱河一带以及黄河源区中西部是降雪日数的大值区,降雪日数以14 d·（10a）^-1的速率在减少,黄河源区西部是降雪日数减少最为明显的区域;（4）三江源地区各月降雪量及降雪日数均呈双峰型分布,降雪量和降雪日数最多出现在5月,小雪易出现在3月或4月,中雪和大雪以上量级在秋末、春季出现的概率最高;（5）随着海拔的抬升,降雪量和降雪日数增加,随经度的增加而减少;冷季降雪量多的年份,径流量也随之增大,且径流量相...  相似文献   

The Starzach site in Southern Germany: a site with naturally occurring CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions recovering from century-long gas mining as a natural analog for a leaking CCS reservoir     

Alexander Lübben  Carsten Leven 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(8):316

In this paper, we present the Starzach site, a region featuring numerous natural CO₂ emission spots, such as mofettes, that reappeared after a longer period of extensive industrial CO₂ mining. We discuss the results of a detailed literature study on the geological setting and the activities related to the gas mining in combination with own measurements to introduce the site as an example on how gas leakage from an insecure CCS reservoir could manifest at the surface. The site is in particular interesting for such investigations as the CO₂ emissions started to replenish after the end of the CO₂ mining and offers the unique possibility to investigate an increase in degassing activity as it might be expected for an active CCS site where leakage is suspected. Based on the geological setting and soil, gas emission, and isotope investigations, we further discuss the source of the CO₂ emission and the gas ascent to the ground surface via deep-reaching faults, latter being so far excluded by previous work. The combination of our extensive literature review and recent field investigations allowed us to draw new geological conclusions for the site that were under discussion for a long time and to give insight into the site’s potential for CCS-related analog studies in the future.  相似文献   

Accuracy assessment of noise mapping on the main street     

Bülent Bostanci 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(1):4

Among the sounds constituting a part of our daily lives, the undesired and disturbing ones are named noise. The noises can be defined as the acoustic energy that affects the physiological and psychological welfare of humans due to its direct or indirect effects on the human health. But, the traffic noise, which is one of the disturbing noises having wide dispersion in urban areas, affects the health of a gradually increasing number of people. The number of studies on measurement, dispersion, and mapping of traffic noise in developed and developing countries is gradually increasing. It can be seen that the studies concentrate on mapping based on the city centers and neighborhoods, where the traffic is intense. In this article, unlike the regional noise measurement studies, the transversal cross sections were established with a certain interval according to the land status along the main street, and the noise measurement points were determined using the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The daily mean noise levels (L_den) were calculated by performing the measurements at daytime, evening, and nighttime. Using ArcGIS 10.4 software, the accuracy of noise maps created via inverse distance weighting (IDW), radial basis function (RBF), and ordinary kriging (OK) geostatistical analysis interpolation methods and the dispersion effect of traffic noise were compared. According to the visual method and error corrections, it was found that the best noise map was obtained using the RBF method. It is believed that the map provides accurate and reliable results because of the flat land surface, higher noise values measured on the road region, decrease in the noise at the points farther from the road region, and soft transitions between the noise values depending on the distance from the road. In order to take measures in order to decrease or eliminate noise on the main street, the local administrators and decision-makers can make use of these maps, the accuracy of which has been confirmed.  相似文献   

Hydrochemical,isotopic, and reservoir characterization of the Pasinler (Erzurum) geothermal field,eastern Turkey     

Esra Hatipoğlu Temizel  Fatma Gültekin 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(1):3

The reservoir temperature and conceptual model of the Pasinler geothermal area, which is one of the most important geothermal areas in Eastern Anatolia, are determined by considering its hydrogeochemical and isotope properties. The geothermal waters have a temperature of 51 °C in the geothermal wells and are of Na–Cl–HCO₃ type. The isotope contents of geothermal waters indicate that they are of meteoric origin and that they recharge on higher elevations than cold waters. The geothermal waters are of immature water class and their reservoir temperatures are calculated as 122–155 °C, and their cold water mixture rate is calculated as 32%. According to the δ¹³C_VPDB values, the carbon in the geothermal waters originated from the dissolved carbon in the groundwaters and mantle-based CO₂ gases. According to the δ³⁴S_CDT values, the sources of sulfur in the geothermal waters are volcanic sulfur, oil and coal, and limestones. The sources of the major ions (Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl^?, and HCO₃ ^?) in the geothermal waters are ion exchange and plagioclase and silicate weathering. It is determined that the volcanic rocks in the area have effects on the water chemistry and elements like Zn, Rb, Sr, and Ba originated from the rhyolite, rhyolitic tuff, and basalts. The rare earth element (REE) content of the geothermal waters is low, and according to the normalized REE diagrams, the light REE are getting depleted and heavy REE are getting enriched. The positive Eu and negative Ce anomalies of waters indicate oxygen-rich environments.  相似文献